Announcing my new book Proof: The Uncertain Science of Certainty

And why you might be interested in pre-ordering a copy

How far would you go in your search for certainty?

And once you got there, how would you convince others?

I’m very excited to officially announce my new book Proof: The Uncertain Science of Certainty, which has some shiny new UK and US cover designs and is available to pre-order now.

The book spans science, economics, politics, justice and more, digging into the ideas we can use to weigh evidence and converge on truth under pressure – and what happens when these methods fail. Along the way, there’s paradoxes and poker, Guinness and gatecrashing, cricket and conspiracy theories, royalty and robot racing, and witchcraft and Wonder Woman. So hopefully lots in there that you’ll find interesting.

As well as my own research in mathematics, statistics and epidemiology, working to separate truth from fiction, the book draws on insights from over two thousand articles, research papers and books, and dozens of interviews with leading subject specialists.

On a personal level, writing this book has also made me reflect and rethink many of my own attitudes to evidence, proof and uncertainty across different areas of life. I’ve already touched on some of these ideas in previous Substack posts, such as the convenience of averages in health, the problems with trying to dodge causality, and the challenges of gathering evidence under time pressure. My new book pulls these themes together, alongside many more.

But don’t just take my word for it. Chris van Tulleken (author of Ultra Processed People) said the book is ‘profound and utterly absorbing’ with ‘beautiful accessible, human prose’, Tim Harford (host of More Or Less on BBC Radio 4) said it’s ‘vivid, intelligent and wide-ranging’, and Gaia Vince (author of Nomad Century) said it’s a ‘brilliant and clarifying light through the muddle... a puzzle-solver's delight’. And New Scientist called it ‘fascinating’ and named it one of their best books to look forward to in 2025.

If you’re based in the UK or the US, you can pre-order Proof here from Waterstones, Barnes & Noble, Amazon, Audible or – even better – head to your local bookshop. It will be out in March (UK) and May 2025 (US), with more international release dates to come soon.

In case you’re wondering why authors talk about pre-orders so much, it’s because they’re massively helpful for new books, particularly if you pre-order from in-person bookshops*. Pre-orders count towards a book’s first week sales, which in turn sparks further interest. So if you’ve liked my posts on Substack, Bluesky, Twitter and/or enjoyed my previous books, I’d be really grateful if you’d consider pre-ordering and spread the word to others who might like it.

(*Local bookshops are also just great places, and well worth supporting.)

The search for certainty in an uncertain world

Whether we want to understand a disease, make better products, evaluate a government policy, or even decide whether to send someone to prison, we must choose how to weigh evidence, and how high to set the bar for action. My book therefore delves into the origins of the ideas that have shaped our very notions of truth, from Ancient Greece and the medieval Arab world to the heart of modern misinformation and AI.

I explore the logical monsters that caused a mathematical civil war, and the Ancient Greek logic that led to an actual civil war. I explain why debates about three drinks shaped much of statistics, and dig into the scientific quirks that can skew both criminal and clinical trials. Along the way, I also look at how simplistic efforts to counter misinformation risk making the problem worse and what happens when, thanks to computational brute force, proof moves beyond our grasp entirely.

In an era where truth feels ever more fragmented and information ever more overwhelming, Proof is my guide to how we got here - and where we’re going next.

I hope you’ll join me on the journey.