Adam, thank you for clearly outlining these steps in potential pandemic situation. With covid-19, the impact of human factors in making and accelerating the spread may need to be taken into account in preparing for the next pandemic. Thanks again Adam. This is, as always from you, very thoughtful.
Adam, great article. Great to see a professional, qualified view countering the widespread corporate mainstream media propaganda that "vaccination is the only way out" of a pandemic. When in fact broadly speaking there are three steps that must come before introduction of a novel vaccine/treatment, which by the very rapidity of their development are introduced BEFORE all the usual manufacturer trials, independent studies, meta-analysis of studies, and full regulatory approval processes have been completed, and BEFORE medium to long term health consequences are known, understood and communicated to permit fully informed and therefore legally valid consent of recipients. The risks of ignorance of these health consequences was compounded by widespread employer vaccine mandates, which were unsupported by the science. But Covid-19 vaccine candidate safety is a whole other discussion.
However, why in Step 4 are pharmaceutical interventions and natural immunity post-infection an "either/or" solution?
During Covid, more and more became infected with highly transmissible but milder Delta, then even more highly transmissible Omicron, declared by WHO as a "variant of interest" rather than a "variant of concern" due to its mildness, despite almost overwhelming international pressure brought to bear on the doctor who reported the discovery of this variant to WHO, Dr Sandra Coetzee, head of the South African Medical Association, to exaggerate its severity. Then evidence of viral escape from Delta and rapidly waning immunity to Covid vaccines to as little as zero in as little as 8 weeks emerged globally, in studies from UK, USA, Qatar and Israel. Then near the tail-end of the Omicron wave, evidence emerged - in the form of Covid antibody studies of blood donors in every capital city of Australia, a nation where existed every encouragement to get tested for symptoms, ie free PCR testing, paid "Covid leave" and an effective largely free public medical system - of widespread asymptomatic infection (upwards of 1-in-3 infections), ie the immune system did its job, defeating a pathogen before it replicated to the extent that the body displayed symptoms. Health authorities then spruiked "hybrid immunity" from both vaccination AND natural immunity, accentuating the importance of Covid vaccine derived immunity, and begrudgingly acknowledging natural immunity, if not actively downplaying it.
How they came to this conclusion, I'm not sure. Because the emerging evidence at the time (described above and below, largely ignored by the mainstream corporate media) showed the reverse was true.
I recall the ONLY Covid vaccine manufacturer to publish actual data on antibody response to their vaccine was J & J's one-shot viral vector vaccine, and to be frank the antibody response was - relative to vaccines for other pathogens - underwhelming.
Meanwhile various studies early in the pandemic (and subsequently another 200 or more) highlighted the important role of natural immunity, particularly T-cell memory immunity, which is persistent for decades and responds to highly evolved variants.
I recall two such studies. The first described a "violent and aggresive" T-cell memory immunity response to the original SARS-CoV-2 virus variant in survivors of the 2003 - 2005 SARS pandemic (caused by the virus SARS-CoV), despite a 24% difference in the genetic code between the two viruses, with at least 18 years between exposure. The same study found this T-cell memory immunity also provided a measure of protection against four of the coronaviruses known to cause about a quarter of common colds in humans, despite up to a 50% difference in their genetic code.
Briefly diverging, meanwhile a 0.2% genetic difference expressed in Delta was sufficient to largely defeat Pfizer's mRNA Covid vaccine rendering it only 32% effective, down from the widely publicised "95% effective". Further viral evolution expressed in Omicron was found in the first (South African) study to have rendered it 1/40th as effective against Delta, something CEO & chair Albert Bourla readily publicly admitted, but then urged boosters, claiming it increased immunity by 90%. But wait a minute: 1/40th of 32% is 0.8%, so 90% more effective than 0.8% is... 1.52% effective.
A follow-up study by the authors of the first study found T-cell memory immunity to the SARS-CoV-2 virus in a high proportion of the close household contacts of the Covid-19 sufferers that had expressed no symptoms of infection, highlighting asymptomatic infection and thus effective post-exposure natural immunity response.
Unfortunately, while antibody testing is relatively inexpensive, assessing T-cell memory immunity is not.
I trust that based on the scientific evidence of the relative effectiveness of novel Covid vaccines to a novel & rapidly evolving pandemic pathogen, and history, in future pandemics evidence of infection and apparent recovery, or evidence of antibodies or T-cells to the pathogen of concern, may be considered as an alternative to employer-mandated vaccination with an experimental novel vaccine candidate under emergency use approval, still in its Phase-III trial period, with no data on medium to long term health & safety effects; or in circumstances where evidence of infection and apparent recovery, or evidence of antibodies to the pathogen of concern can be shown, employer vaccine mandates are rulled illegal and unnecessary. Where there is risk, there must be choice.
Thanks. Great as always. Due to human over population of this planet and mass production of animal protein food stocks has brought us to this nightmare. Habit loss to wild animals due to the same reason has allowed HIV, ebola and a host of hemorrhagic fevers to cross over. Don't have an answer just know alittle about the problem.
End animal agriculture as quickly and economically as possible. Stop the encroachment of Native areas for the development of human activities ie. no more development of real estate in these areas
Adam, thank you for clearly outlining these steps in potential pandemic situation. With covid-19, the impact of human factors in making and accelerating the spread may need to be taken into account in preparing for the next pandemic. Thanks again Adam. This is, as always from you, very thoughtful.
Adam, great article. Great to see a professional, qualified view countering the widespread corporate mainstream media propaganda that "vaccination is the only way out" of a pandemic. When in fact broadly speaking there are three steps that must come before introduction of a novel vaccine/treatment, which by the very rapidity of their development are introduced BEFORE all the usual manufacturer trials, independent studies, meta-analysis of studies, and full regulatory approval processes have been completed, and BEFORE medium to long term health consequences are known, understood and communicated to permit fully informed and therefore legally valid consent of recipients. The risks of ignorance of these health consequences was compounded by widespread employer vaccine mandates, which were unsupported by the science. But Covid-19 vaccine candidate safety is a whole other discussion.
However, why in Step 4 are pharmaceutical interventions and natural immunity post-infection an "either/or" solution?
During Covid, more and more became infected with highly transmissible but milder Delta, then even more highly transmissible Omicron, declared by WHO as a "variant of interest" rather than a "variant of concern" due to its mildness, despite almost overwhelming international pressure brought to bear on the doctor who reported the discovery of this variant to WHO, Dr Sandra Coetzee, head of the South African Medical Association, to exaggerate its severity. Then evidence of viral escape from Delta and rapidly waning immunity to Covid vaccines to as little as zero in as little as 8 weeks emerged globally, in studies from UK, USA, Qatar and Israel. Then near the tail-end of the Omicron wave, evidence emerged - in the form of Covid antibody studies of blood donors in every capital city of Australia, a nation where existed every encouragement to get tested for symptoms, ie free PCR testing, paid "Covid leave" and an effective largely free public medical system - of widespread asymptomatic infection (upwards of 1-in-3 infections), ie the immune system did its job, defeating a pathogen before it replicated to the extent that the body displayed symptoms. Health authorities then spruiked "hybrid immunity" from both vaccination AND natural immunity, accentuating the importance of Covid vaccine derived immunity, and begrudgingly acknowledging natural immunity, if not actively downplaying it.
How they came to this conclusion, I'm not sure. Because the emerging evidence at the time (described above and below, largely ignored by the mainstream corporate media) showed the reverse was true.
I recall the ONLY Covid vaccine manufacturer to publish actual data on antibody response to their vaccine was J & J's one-shot viral vector vaccine, and to be frank the antibody response was - relative to vaccines for other pathogens - underwhelming.
Meanwhile various studies early in the pandemic (and subsequently another 200 or more) highlighted the important role of natural immunity, particularly T-cell memory immunity, which is persistent for decades and responds to highly evolved variants.
I recall two such studies. The first described a "violent and aggresive" T-cell memory immunity response to the original SARS-CoV-2 virus variant in survivors of the 2003 - 2005 SARS pandemic (caused by the virus SARS-CoV), despite a 24% difference in the genetic code between the two viruses, with at least 18 years between exposure. The same study found this T-cell memory immunity also provided a measure of protection against four of the coronaviruses known to cause about a quarter of common colds in humans, despite up to a 50% difference in their genetic code.
Briefly diverging, meanwhile a 0.2% genetic difference expressed in Delta was sufficient to largely defeat Pfizer's mRNA Covid vaccine rendering it only 32% effective, down from the widely publicised "95% effective". Further viral evolution expressed in Omicron was found in the first (South African) study to have rendered it 1/40th as effective against Delta, something CEO & chair Albert Bourla readily publicly admitted, but then urged boosters, claiming it increased immunity by 90%. But wait a minute: 1/40th of 32% is 0.8%, so 90% more effective than 0.8% is... 1.52% effective.
A follow-up study by the authors of the first study found T-cell memory immunity to the SARS-CoV-2 virus in a high proportion of the close household contacts of the Covid-19 sufferers that had expressed no symptoms of infection, highlighting asymptomatic infection and thus effective post-exposure natural immunity response.
Unfortunately, while antibody testing is relatively inexpensive, assessing T-cell memory immunity is not.
I trust that based on the scientific evidence of the relative effectiveness of novel Covid vaccines to a novel & rapidly evolving pandemic pathogen, and history, in future pandemics evidence of infection and apparent recovery, or evidence of antibodies or T-cells to the pathogen of concern, may be considered as an alternative to employer-mandated vaccination with an experimental novel vaccine candidate under emergency use approval, still in its Phase-III trial period, with no data on medium to long term health & safety effects; or in circumstances where evidence of infection and apparent recovery, or evidence of antibodies to the pathogen of concern can be shown, employer vaccine mandates are rulled illegal and unnecessary. Where there is risk, there must be choice.
Thanks. Great as always. Due to human over population of this planet and mass production of animal protein food stocks has brought us to this nightmare. Habit loss to wild animals due to the same reason has allowed HIV, ebola and a host of hemorrhagic fevers to cross over. Don't have an answer just know alittle about the problem.
Non"target laboratory GOF work"?
End animal agriculture as quickly and economically as possible. Stop the encroachment of Native areas for the development of human activities ie. no more development of real estate in these areas