When I used to teach a short course on risk we examined estimation techniques and outcomes. I demonstrated how difficult in was to predict events especially as so many factors were in operation.
I ended with a story about the terrible twin tower event and how politicians asked experts for advise. One replied "Go watch the worst disaster movie ever made. That's what can happen!" How true that was I don't know. For some reason this sticks in my mind while I've lost memory of the risk assessment techniques.
When I used to teach a short course on risk we examined estimation techniques and outcomes. I demonstrated how difficult in was to predict events especially as so many factors were in operation.
I ended with a story about the terrible twin tower event and how politicians asked experts for advise. One replied "Go watch the worst disaster movie ever made. That's what can happen!" How true that was I don't know. For some reason this sticks in my mind while I've lost memory of the risk assessment techniques.