And why this can happen even with ‘rational’ calculations
Adam, bayes theorem in practical action! Thank you.
Late to this, but I wonder how you assess the strength of your prior? e.g., how do you know it's dbeta(x,20,60) and not dbeta(x,2,6) or dbeta(x,200,600)? makes a huge difference, both in the example and from a metaphorical perspective, right?
Adam, bayes theorem in practical action! Thank you.
Late to this, but I wonder how you assess the strength of your prior? e.g., how do you know it's dbeta(x,20,60) and not dbeta(x,2,6) or dbeta(x,200,600)? makes a huge difference, both in the example and from a metaphorical perspective, right?